Let’s be real for a second. In the world of the NFL, the difference between a "franchise savior" and a "bridge quarterback" is usually about three inches of ball placement on a slant route. When the Denver Broncos finally turned in the card for the drew lock draft pick back in 2019, the vibe in the war room wasn't just optimistic—it was bordering on euphoric. John Elway thought he’d finally found "the guy" to end the post-Peyton Manning carousel. We all saw the swagger. The dancing on the sidelines. The arm talent that made scouts drool during his days at Mizzou.
But looking back, that pick was a chaotic turning point. It wasn't just about one kid from Missouri; it was about how NFL teams evaluate risk, how coaching changes kill development, and why being a second-round pick is sometimes a curse in disguise.
Where the Drew Lock Draft Pick Actually Landed
If you’re trying to remember the specifics, here is the raw data. Drew Lock was the 42nd overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
People forget that he was widely mocked as a first-rounder. Some analysts even had him going in the top ten. When he started sliding, the Denver Broncos—who had already traded down from the 10th spot—decided they couldn't pass up the value anymore. They sent the 52nd, 125th, and 182nd picks to the Cincinnati Bengals just to move up and grab him. It was a classic "get your guy" move.
The 2019 QB class was... weird. Kyler Murray went first, obviously. Then Daniel Jones went at six (much to the shock of everyone in New York), and Dwayne Haskins went at 15. Lock was the fourth quarterback off the board. Honestly, being a second-rounder puts you in a tough spot. You don't get that fifth-year option that first-rounders have, which means your leash is naturally shorter. You’ve got to prove it fast, or the team starts looking at the next draft class before your jersey is even dry.
The "Elway Type" Stigma
For years, the joke was that John Elway only drafted quarterbacks who looked like him. Tall. Big arm. Confident. Lock fit that mold perfectly. Standing 6'4" and weighing around 228 pounds, he looked the part. He’d spent four years at Missouri, throwing for over 12,000 yards and 99 touchdowns. He had that "gunslinger" mentality that scouts either love or absolutely terrify them.
The problem with the drew lock draft pick wasn't the talent. It was the timing. Denver was a mess. They were transitioning between offensive philosophies, and Lock was walking into a locker room that was still trying to find its identity after the Super Bowl 50 hangover.
Why the Hype Built So Fast
Lock didn't play right away. Joe Flacco (remember that era?) started the season, but after a neck injury sidelined the veteran, Lock got his shot in Week 13 against the Chargers. He won. Then he went to Houston and absolutely carved up the Texans, throwing three touchdowns in a blowout victory.
Suddenly, Denver went crazy.
He finished his rookie year 4-1. Fans were buying jerseys. He was rapping on the sidelines to Jeezy. It felt like the Broncos had finally escaped the quarterback wilderness. But this is where the nuance of NFL scouting comes in. If you look at those 2019 tapes, you see the cracks. He relied way too much on his arm strength to bail him out of bad reads. His footwork was, frankly, a mess. In the NFL, if you don't fix your feet, the defensive coordinators will eat you alive by year two.
And that’s exactly what happened.
The 2020 Regression and the Coaching Carousel
If you want to ruin a young quarterback, change his offensive coordinator every twelve months. It works every time.
Rich Scangarello was out. Pat Shurmur was in. Then came the 2020 season, which was a nightmare for everyone due to the pandemic, but especially for a young guy like Lock who needed reps. He led the league in interceptions that year with 15, tied with Jameis Winston. His completion percentage hovered around 57%.
Critics started pointing out that while the drew lock draft pick was great value at 42, he wasn't playing like a starter. He was playing like a high-end backup who could get hot for a quarter but couldn't sustain a drive against a complex zone defense.
The Russell Wilson Trade: The Final Chapter in Denver
By 2022, the Broncos were done waiting. They had a roster that was "win-now," and they didn't think Lock could get them there. When the blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson happened, Lock was one of the primary pieces sent to the Seattle Seahawks.
It was a humbling moment. He went from being the heir apparent to Elway to being a "throw-in" in a trade for a future Hall of Famer. But Seattle turned out to be exactly what he needed—a place to sit, learn under Geno Smith, and recalibrate his game without the pressure of being the face of the franchise.
What Scouts Got Right (and Wrong)
When we evaluate the drew lock draft pick today, we have to look at the "Draft Grade" vs. reality.
- The Arm: Everyone was right about the arm. Even now, Lock can make throws that only a handful of humans can make. The "off-platform" stuff? He was doing that before it was cool.
- The Processing: This was the miss. NFL speed is different. Lock struggled to move past his first read when the pocket got muddy.
- The Leadership: He's always been a "glue guy." Even when he lost his job in Seattle to Geno Smith, he was the first person celebrating on the sidelines. That matters for a long-term career in the league.
The Ripple Effect of Pick 42
Think about the players Denver didn't take because they moved up for Lock. They could have stayed pat and looked at receivers or offensive linemen that ended up being perennial Pro Bowlers. But that's the nature of the draft. It’s a gambling den.
Interestingly, the Bengals used the picks they got from Denver in that trade to help build the foundation of their Super Bowl run a few years later. Draft trades are never just about the player; they are about the draft capital you sacrifice to get them.
Practical Takeaways for Fans and Analysts
If you're looking at the drew lock draft pick as a case study for future drafts, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, draft position dictates patience. If Lock had been a top-five pick, Denver might have stuck with him for four full years. Because he was a second-rounder, he was easier to move on from.
Second, surroundings matter more than stats. Lock’s best stretches came when he had a consistent run game and a simple read-progression. When the offense got "pro-style" and complex under Shurmur, his production cratered.
Lastly, the "bust" label is often applied too early. Lock has carved out a very respectable career as a high-end backup and occasional starter (now with the New York Giants). In a league where there aren't 32 good starting QBs, a guy like Lock is incredibly valuable, even if he didn't become the next John Elway.
If you're tracking quarterback development, stop looking at the highlights and start looking at the coaching stability. A talented arm like Lock's needs a "QB whisperer" who stays in the building for more than one season. Without that, you're just throwing talent into a blender.
To truly understand the value of a pick like this, you have to look at the contract. Lock was an affordable high-upside play. Denver didn't lose decades of progress by picking him; they just lost a few years of searching. For the Seahawks and Giants, he represents a low-risk, high-reward veteran who can win a game in a pinch. That’s the reality of the NFL—not everyone is a superstar, but everyone has a role.
How to Evaluate Future QB Projects
- Check the sack rate: High sack rates in college usually translate to slow processing in the NFL.
- Look at the "Big Time Throw" percentage: Lock always ranked high here, which is why he keeps getting jobs.
- Ignore the 40-yard dash: For QBs, pocket mobility matters way more than straight-line speed. Lock had the former, but his footwork often neutralized it.
The story of Lock isn't over, but the chapter on his draft status is closed. He’s no longer a "prospect." He’s a veteran. And in the NFL, being a veteran who can still sling it is a win, regardless of where the draft card originally said you were picked.