If you’ve ever scrolled through your phone and seen two different news sites reporting completely different numbers for "how many mass shootings in the US" this year, you aren't crazy. One headline says 500. Another says 20. It feels like someone is lying to you.
The reality is actually a lot more frustrating. It’s not necessarily about lies; it’s about definitions. In the United States, we don't have one single, legally binding definition of what a mass shooting actually is.
Honestly, it’s a mess.
Depending on who you ask—the FBI, a non-profit tracker, or a group of university researchers—the number of mass shootings in a given year can swing by hundreds. This isn't just a "math thing." It changes how we feel about safety and how we talk about policy.
The Numbers Game: Why the Data Never Matches
Let’s look at the most recent full-year data for 2025.
If you look at the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), you’ll see they recorded 408 mass shootings in 2025. That sounds like more than one a day. But if you look at the FBI’s "Active Shooter" report for the previous year (2024), they only listed 24 incidents.
Wait, 408 versus 24? That is a massive gap.
The GVA defines a mass shooting as any incident where four or more people are shot (injured or killed), not including the shooter. They don’t care if it was a gang dispute, a robbery gone wrong, or a domestic violence tragedy in a private home. If four people were hit by bullets, it goes on the list.
The FBI is way more specific. They track "Active Shooter" incidents. This means someone is actively trying to kill people in a populated area. They usually exclude gang hits or drug-related violence where the motive is "transactional." They also look for that specific terrifying "rampage" element.
Then you’ve got The Violence Project and USA Today/AP/Northeastern University. They often focus on "Mass Killings." To them, it only counts if four or more people actually die. If ten people are shot but everyone survives? According to some of these databases, that’s not a mass shooting.
It's a brutal way to count, but that’s how the data is built.
What Happened in 2025 and 2026?
The good news—if you can call it that—is that the numbers are trending down.
In 2025, mass shootings (using that broad 4+ victims definition) fell by about 24% compared to 2024. In 2024, there were roughly 503 mass shootings. By the end of 2025, that number dropped to 408.
Why the drop? Experts like James Densley from Metropolitan State University suggest we are finally seeing a return to "typical" levels after the massive spike we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic years. 2021 was the absolute peak, with 659 mass shootings.
As of right now in early 2026, the data is still trickling in. The Gun Violence Archive has recorded about 16 mass shootings in the first few weeks of the year. It’s too early to say if 2026 will be "better" than 2025, but the downward slope is at least holding for now.
Breaking Down the 2025 Stats:
- Total Mass Shootings (GVA): 408
- Total Killed in these incidents: 358
- Total Wounded: 1,843
- Mass Murders (4+ dead): Only 1 incident in the first few months, though this fluctuates.
Where These Shootings Actually Happen
We always think of schools. It’s the most terrifying scenario for any parent. But the data shows something different.
According to the Rockefeller Institute of Government, mass shootings are actually most likely to happen in workplaces and retail/entertainment spaces. Schools actually make up about 22% of mass public shootings.
In 2025, none of the "mass killings" (the high-fatality events) actually took place in a school, which is a significant change from the headlines we saw in years like 2018 or 2022.
Most gun violence in America is quiet. It happens in homes. It happens in alleys. It happens in the middle of the night between people who know each other. The "mass" events—the ones that make us stay glued to the TV—are actually a small slice of the total gun deaths in the US.
The Profiles: Who is Behind the Trigger?
The Violence Project has done some deep-dive research into the life histories of these shooters. They found some pretty consistent patterns, though every case is different.
Most shooters are in a state of crisis before the event. We’re talking 80% showing noticeable signs like depression, social withdrawal, or sudden outbursts. A huge portion of them are also suicidal. For many, the mass shooting is intended to be their final act.
They are also overwhelmingly male—about 95%.
The average age is around 34, but that’s skewed. School shooters are almost always younger (mid-teens to early 20s), while workplace shooters tend to be older employees or former employees in their 40s or 50s.
Why the Definition Matters for You
When you hear a politician say, "There have been 500 mass shootings this year," they are usually using the GVA's broad definition to highlight how common gun violence is.
When you hear someone else say, "Mass shootings are extremely rare," they are usually using the FBI’s definition or the "4+ killed in public" definition.
Both are technically "correct" based on their own rules.
But if you want to understand your own risk, you have to look at the nuance. The chance of being caught in a random, "rampage" style public mass shooting remains statistically very low. However, the prevalence of "community" mass shootings—where four people are hit in a neighborhood dispute—is much higher than in almost any other developed nation.
Moving Forward: Actionable Insights
So, what do we actually do with this information? Knowing the number is one thing; staying safe is another.
1. Contextualize the News
Next time you see a "Mass Shooting" headline, check the victim count. Was it 4+ shot or 4+ killed? Was it a public space or a private residence? This helps you understand the nature of the threat without the immediate panic.
2. Watch for the "Crisis" Signs
Since 80% of mass shooters are in a noticeable crisis beforehand, "See Something, Say Something" actually has teeth. Behavioral intervention teams in schools and workplaces have been shown to stop potential attacks before they start. If a colleague or student is talking about "going out in a blaze of glory" or has a sudden, obsessive interest in past shooters, that’s a red flag that requires professional intervention.
3. Support Community Violence Intervention (CVI)
Since many mass shootings (under the broad definition) are related to local disputes or gang activity, CVI programs are often more effective at lowering these numbers than broad national laws. These programs work directly with at-risk individuals to de-escalate beefs before they turn into "mass" casualty events.
4. Check Your Local Data
National numbers are a snapshot, but gun violence is highly localized. States like South Dakota and Maine saw massive drops in gun deaths in 2025, while states like Wyoming and Arizona saw increases. Look at your specific city's crime dashboard to see what the actual trends are in your backyard.
The numbers are complicated because the problem is complicated. We can't solve it until we agree on what we're actually counting. Until then, the best thing you can do is look past the headlines and look at the raw data.
Data Sources & References:
- Gun Violence Archive (2025/2026 Database)
- FBI Active Shooter Incidents in the United States Report (2024)
- The Violence Project Mass Shooter Database
- Rockefeller Institute of Government: Mass Shooting Factsheet
- The Trace: Gun Violence By The Numbers